lib/PublicInbox/V2Writable.pm | 4 +++-

diff --git a/lib/PublicInbox/V2Writable.pm b/lib/PublicInbox/V2Writable.pm
index 1f17fe212943a51af9b89071f28b07cd7ef74580..b1d8095f598408c76012f7ec8bf292f3feadde3f 100644
--- a/lib/PublicInbox/V2Writable.pm
+++ b/lib/PublicInbox/V2Writable.pm
@@ -588,7 +588,9 @@ 	my $latest = git_dir_latest($self, \$max);
 	if (defined $latest) {
 		my $git = PublicInbox::Git->new($latest);
 		my $packed_bytes = $git->packed_bytes;
-		if ($packed_bytes >= $self->{rotate_bytes}) {
+		my $unpacked_bytes = $packed_bytes / $PACKING_FACTOR;
+
+		if ($unpacked_bytes >= $self->{rotate_bytes}) {
 			$epoch = $max + 1;
 		} else {
 			$self->{epoch_max} = $max;